The biggest issue we have in this economic recession/depression is that no one knows how to declare that we have hit the bottom floor.

Without a bottom being called, we can’t start to inch up and show progress and start to “feel” incrementally better and more positive.

I believe that the core issue around housing and bad toxic mortgages has been overstated as the main issue that has driven our economy to shambles.

That issue affects certain homeowners and banks but mostly BIG banks that made up these esoteric financial instruments that no one truly understood. 

The main issue is and will be employment and jobs and wages. If someone is working that person can pay their mortgage; pay their credit card; save money; and stimulate the economy by buying a new car when needed, etc.

If jobs are lost then commercial real estate suffers. This is the next segment to feel the heat. See this article within.

If jobs are lost then credit card charges can’t be paid and kids in college need to get financial aid and universities won’t be able to follow suit. There is an interconnectedness that all flows from employment. No jobs; no cars bought; no vacations taken; no family dinners out; and on and on.

Any stimulus package MUST start from getting people working again. Helping banks to lend money must be done with an eye towards how it helps people keep their jobs or get back to work.

We have new sectors that will report bad news over the next 12 months.

2009 will be a terrible year.

Once we get a positive job report, we can declare the bottom and grow from there.