The biggest issue we have in this economic recession/depression is that no one knows how to declare that we have hit the bottom floor.
Without a bottom being called, we can’t start to inch up and show progress and start to “feel” incrementally better and more positive.
I believe that the core issue around housing and bad toxic mortgages has been overstated as the main issue that has driven our economy to shambles.
That issue affects certain homeowners and banks but mostly BIG banks that made up these esoteric financial instruments that no one truly understood.
The main issue is and will be employment and jobs and wages. If someone is working that person can pay their mortgage; pay their credit card; save money; and stimulate the economy by buying a new car when needed, etc.
If jobs are lost then commercial real estate suffers. This is the next segment to feel the heat. See this article within.
If jobs are lost then credit card charges can’t be paid and kids in college need to get financial aid and universities won’t be able to follow suit. There is an interconnectedness that all flows from employment. No jobs; no cars bought; no vacations taken; no family dinners out; and on and on.
Any stimulus package MUST start from getting people working again. Helping banks to lend money must be done with an eye towards how it helps people keep their jobs or get back to work.
We have new sectors that will report bad news over the next 12 months.
2009 will be a terrible year.
Once we get a positive job report, we can declare the bottom and grow from there.
“2009 will be a terrible year”
Not exactly the type of fear-mongering I expected from someone of your pedigree, Ted. I mean, it is all relative. Let me know in December how terrible your year was, eh?
Hi Ted-
Can you comment on the increase in season ticket prices for the Caps? I sit in section 100 and my tickets went up another 6% this year. I saw a lot of disappointed posts on the Caps site. Given the economic times, nobody really wants to pay more money for non-essential items. It would have been nice to have at least read a comment from you or Mr. Van Stone in the renewal package/letter we received as to why we are paying more again next season. Thanks in advance!
One question regarding your jobs analysis:
What if the jobs figure going up records nothing but a spike in government jobs? The kind of jobs that will exist only as long as the government can borrow money to finance them.
Ted – you could not be more on the mark about jobs. This is what we need to turn this around – and not just any jobs but jobs people feel confident will be there week in and week out. Years ago when Ross Perot was running for President, he was interviewed on Larry King. During that interview he warned how we, the US, was not making anything anymore and how dangerous this was. He stated how we could not support ourselves if we were not sustaining ourselves with manufacturing. That interview was years ago, but by gosh he was right on the money. The loss of the manufacturing jobs has really, really hurt this country. These were decent paying jobs that allowed a person to support their family and their dreams. Now, even our service jobs are being sent overseas…
Even though I have a job, I go in everyday wondering for how long. As a result, I’m not buying much of anything.. not a new car, not a new TV – even cut out smaller things like new clothes, etc.
Makes me grateful for having the CAPS on TV.. GO RED!
Ted,
I totally agree with everything you said.
As you said “2009 will be a terrible year”. I have a job now but have never been so concerned with keeping it. The future is very uncertain for many people. I would love to buy Caps season tickets for next year.
So please…given all this that you laid out, please dont raise ticket prices for season tickets next year!
“…we can declare the bottom and grow from there.”
Kind of like the 2004 Caps?