The mainstream media is usually late to the party.

They are NOT a good indicator of what is happening in real time or what may happen in the future. They are a good indicator of what has happened. Many times, it is smart to bet against the mindset of the mainstream media.

The mainstream media are midstream now in their cycle of layoffs; cutbacks; write-offs; and negative psychology. It is coloring their objectivity. The mainstream media is basically blaming their business predicament on the recession/depression instead of a coupling of the economy AND their basic position in the new world order of traditional media vs. the web. They are all participating right now in a huge pity party. What you are hearing is the chatter of that party. I think it is time to listen to the signal within the noise.

Hence the traditional media sources and their reporting on the economy are dark, scary, fire and brimstone. The mainstream media were late in calling the recession/depression and I believe they are off in calling a turn around of late. You as a consumer are a better indicator of what is happening in the real world. How do you feel today? Don’t you feel a little bit better than 100 days ago? Six months ago?

I think we may have hit bottom. Many smart people that I know have slowly started to become buyers and are starting to look at how to turn the economy today into a competitive advantage against weaker competitors. I have gone into that mode now too personally.

Why? Here are some clues: Housing sales in some bell weather states are starting to rise. If homes get cheap enough, sales will follow. Some cars are starting to sell as auto manufacturers discount enough and loans are starting to make their way to consumers. Some well-positioned financial concerns a la Goldman and Wells Fargo have started to report good news in their financial reports. You will see the strongest get stronger and the weak get marginalized. Some stocks are starting to rally. Have you seen Google’s share price of late? Some investors are starting to make investments in start-ups again and the government’s stimulus packages are starting to make their way to small businesses while banks are starting to make loans.

You can also see some telltale signs: Car companies are starting to run commercials on network TV. RE/MAX is advertising again. Concert tours are selling. Movies are doing well at the box office. Some sports teams are still booming. The malls seem a bit more crowded. Dining establishments are booked again. People have adapted to the new world order. The world didn’t end. The one big missing piece is job creation and the end of layoffs. Once we see this light turn from red to yellow to green, I believe we will start to turn around. Maybe 2010 will be a tiny growth year? Maybe we entered the negative cycle much earlier than we all realized and the end of the cycle will come sooner than we think? Black Swan events are hard to call and impossible to predict but it is now the time where fortunes will be made as smart people and companies make great strategic bets on when and where the growth will start again. Or they start to buy high value goods at a big discount while they can.

Savings and the importance of cash management is now all the rage. Cutting debt is now very important to all consumers and to all businesses. Buying fewer things and making them of higher value is crucial now to consumers. We are weeding the garden and we are getting back to basics. When the business turns, you will see record and massive profits at well-positioned companies. The winners will take a disproportionate share of the gains.

I sense a bit more optimism today than I did 100 days ago. I think I see some light at the end of the tunnel and it isn’t a train barreling towards us. I am gaining confidence. Call me crazy but my intuition says that we may be bottoming out and in some cases; we are starting to see some growth and some positive signs. Trust in yourself and what you see and experience personally. Don’t believe in outside experts. We may be in recovery mode already and don’t even know it.