I received a very interesting email from a local sports fan today. It snarled that the Caps were good just because we were lucky that we got to draft Alex Ovechkin. I disagreed on the overall sentiment of the email but I do agree that luck has a lot to do with success. Not as much as having a plan, a strategy, a culture, and an infrastructure focused on excellence but luck is a key component. We did also draft Semin, Green, Backstrom, Carlson, Schultz, Varlamov, Nuervirth, Fehr, and Alzner too. Lucky bastards that we are 
. Malkin was the second pick in that draft that Ovechkin went number 1 too. Penguins got lucky too, I guess.
So if we are just lucky then I guess the Penguins were just lucky that they drafted Sidney Crosby first the next year or Tampa Bay in that they drafted Vinny Lecavalier and won a Stanley Cup. Or the San Antonio Spurs, they got lucky twice with David Robinson and Tim Duncan (championships followed). The Chicago Bulls so lucky they drafted Michael Jordan and won 6 rings. Cleveland Cavaliers… Yep Lebron James was number 1 pick. Orlando Magic got Dwight Howard. I mean how lucky was that? He was top 3 pick. Miami Heat? Dwyane Wade was drafted .They got a ring. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers… So lucky to be drafted via a trade of players for a first round pick.
My point: We may all be lucky. Maybe drafting well creates luck or luck is in drafting high. But at some point the results of drafting and developing great players becomes more than blind luck don’t you think? In the NBA or the NHL drafting high makes you really lucky! And eventually good. Call me lucky. Lucky Leonsis.
It’s being able to capitalize on luck that really counts. Look at the then-Bullets when they had Weber, Howard, and Wallace. It seemed like great luck to have that combination. But for a host of reasons — a lot of them debatable — they were never able to put the luck they had to good use.
The Caps had been different. Thanks to the team you’ve assembled — from the front office to the ice — they have been able to make use of their good luck. Here’s hoping they keep it up all the way to the Stanley Cup!
Drafting high does not guarantee success though – the prime examples being the Los Angeles Clippers and our current favorite villain Mike Milbury.
Its not just lucky to draft high, you have to know which guy to draft (Clippers) and develop them properly and in the case of Milbury when to give up and trade the player and when to hold on to them.
The Caps not only drafted the right guy in Ovechkin, they coached him up into being the world class player (and face of franchise) that he is today.
Luck has a lot to do with it. The Caps were extremely lucky to get Ovechkin. They were extremely lucky that three GMs passed on Nicklas Backstrom. They were extremely lucky that 20-some GMs passed on Mike Green and Jeff Schultz. They were extremely lucky that 17 GMs passed on Eric Fehr. They were extremely lucky that 11 GMs passed on Alexander Semin. And don’t even think about how lucky the Caps have been in trades. Hmmmm, maybe it isn’t so much luck as it is savvy.
I was always told that luck happens where opportunity meets preparation. Our Capitals strike me as a clear-cut example of this phenomenon! Ovechkin, Backstrom, et. al. were not drafted accidentally, after all.
“Chance is more basic than causality” wrote the physicist Neils Bohr, and he was “lucky” enough to win the Nobel Prize.
Randomness is a powerful force indeed. I’m going to guess that you (Ted) know Nassim Taleb’s work, but for those readers who don’t: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/.
But it’s just *because* randomness is so… random, that preparation, goals and discipline are so important! Along those lines, oh boy are we Wizards fans looking forward to you taking over!
Hey Ted,
I just want you to know that I always appreciate your possitive and optimistic attitude. I belive it creates good Karma in the world around you, everyone’s lives you touch in a conversation, through your book, via this blog. I especially believe it makes a difference for the team. I have personally experinced the effects of good Karma myself – just the right person comes along to fill a particular need, someone does something at just the right time to make your day, an anaswer you were seeking appears out of nowhere with no apparent explanation. That having been said, I don’t belive in luck. I believe in hard work, perseverance, belief in oneself and others, and miracles.
Ya, lucky that the capitals sucked for so long and got to draft so high for a long amount of time. Same thing goes to the pens, only reason they won a cup was b/c they drafted 1st/2nd overall 5 times in a row. Washington just followed that script, same can be said for the hawks and kings.
Law of the new NHL, If your mediocore for an extended period of time then you will eventually win a champion ship.
Why even humor these kinds of emails? The person who emailed you that is getting exactly what they want.
All of these teams won championships, not division banners – I think the emailer should wait until the end of the season before emailing you again……(and when the odds are against you, and you move up, thats lucky – so Pitt was unlucky they got Malkin instead of Ovechkin)