And that we should NOT have chosen John Wall with the first pick and that we chose John for PR reasons.
And that the blogger “likes me” - which is good. I have that going for me. 
He says we will get 22 wins this coming season and we could be really bad. Worst of all time.
He is pretty smart. He uses nice charts and graphs.
Maybe he is right. Maybe he is wrong. But we shall see. This is a pretty definitive blog post. It will either be prophetic or he will look like one of those folks with the body billboard that says, “The world will end at 12:00 midnight on June 10th 2008.”
Let us hope the stats he uses truly are “silly.”
Arturo is pretty good at what he does but it is a bit too much looking at the past and just basically expecting repeat.
The future will break some with the past if the coaching changes, if the roles change, if the effort changes.
The best review of the past and thinking about the future might lead to some pretty good guesses about some of the changes.
As for Wall vs Cousins I leaned towards Cousins, especially if they were robots and not people. As people I am still not that thrilled with Wall, especially as a #1 with his stats but you made your choice.
I would not want to rush him into being the man above all others like it seems that you are. I’d prefer to give him a year or two to grow into it but maybe it is your best bet, all things considered.
Mr. Leonis,
You are a very wealthy and powerful man.
I assume that your success stems from:
1) an attention to detail
2) a capacity to make informed decisions
3) a tendency to take risks only when a degree of control can be retained, or the consequence of failure is not severe
Allowing your front office to operate without the use of advanced metrics is diametrically opposed to those values. The cost of hiring one excellent analyst each year could save you from overpaying on players like Aaron Brooks, who should command an exorbitant (relative to his actual value) salary due to the mainstream media’s obsession with scoring volume as a reliable indicator of value. You could save millions of dollars and still produce the same number of wins. Doesn’t that sound like a winning proposition?
Mr. Leonis,
I follow the blog mentioned (and in fact arrived here through a link on his site) along with the sister sites in the Wages of Wins network. The system he bases most of his stats on was derived from Wins Produced, a metric developed by sports economist Prof. Dave Berri from Southern Utah University.
It’s a model that accurately gauges a team’s wins through a season based on individual player production. The major selling points are 1) it correlates to a team’s actual wins for the season, and 2) it quantifies each player’s actual contributions to winning.
Now if you want to win you could be a lot worse off than taking the free advice offered on the Wages of Wins network, which compiles data from as far back as the 1977-78 season (and some authors go back further). Just be prepared to make decisions that will likely be unpopular with fans like Q, who didn’t even bother to read the blog he was trashing. He’ll likely want you to trade for Jamal Crawford! And sign Allen Iverson!
Q, how has the team UPGRADED? The team lost it’s 4 most productive players from last year. They added a highly touted rookie that even if he is as good as Chris Paul was as a rookie, will not add more than a few wins.
Dave, so if a guy doesn’t have his own domain, does that make what he has to say less valid? Maybe it does, but you have to read and see what they have to say first.
I will favorite this page and put an appointment for the all star break on my phone to come back here. If the Wiz have already won 9 games by then (with the roster as it looks now) I will be happy and I will post a thank you very much Ted.
Well, this isn’t just some blogger. It is an analysis using WP48, which has proven to be the most reliable predictor of NBA success of all the publicly-available statistical models.
Ted, please consider this.
I am sure that you encounter scenarios in the day to day course of business where you have had the opportunity to acquire another company or assess the performance of one of your own. Someone sits down and summarizes all of the financial info, all of your business development info, your projected revenue stream, etc. You analyze the data, ask your cfo, general counsel, and whoever else is there questions.
If you wonder how they came to the conclusions they did, you ask them their methodology was, the basis for the data they plugged into the formula, and the rationale for using that formula and that data. You make a decision based on the projected value, the risk, how it impacts your other businesses, how it impacts your operating capital, etc.
It becomes a process of taking a methodology, inputting data, and trying to make a better decision based on that.
Assuming you agree that basketball is something that can be predicted by statistical analysis and considering that everyone is using the same set of data, what is it about the methodology that is being used here that you disagree with?
I don’t believe that you are saying “future basketball performance cannot be predicted based on past performance and comparison to similar players.”
I don’t believe you are saying “that data you have from last year is not really what everyone in the league is doing.”
I believe that you are saying “Arturo, your methodology sucks. Your formula sucks. You are analyzing the data incorrectly.”
And not only that, but you are doing so in a very condescending way. I can’t imagine that you would see a presentation or a business plan from a young entrepreneur and then tell him “hey kid, nice charts and graphs. You must be Pretty Smart! Hope your business projections are right or everyone is going to know that you are craaaaazy and live under an overpass.”
Assuming that the person had something that was well put together, showed a great deal of time and effort, good attention to detail, and cared about doing what they were trying to do well, would you react to them in the same way?
From a fan’s perspective (and for the sake of full disclosure, I am a Pistons fan who just moved to DC (and I don’t know Arturo other than by his postings at the Wages of Wins)), I think that everyone just wants to know that you have a formula and that you are at least aware of what it is saying. There is a big difference between “Stats are stupid” and “I disagree with your methodology”.
I don’t think anyone expects you to tell the public you methodology, but I don’t think it is outlandish to ask what you think is wrong with the analysis. Clearly you think that there is something wrong, either with the use rates or with the individual player projections. What is the flaw in Arturo’s methodology?
With that (extremely long winded way of making a short point) having been said, I am excited about the upcoming season and look forward to my first Wizards game and, hopefully, at least one Wizards-Pistons game this year.
J
That guy is a kook, didn’t even read his post but what logic can he be using? The team that won 26 games UPGRADED and likely gained a little chemistry but will be worse???
He needs his keyboard rights taken away! Give me a break! Who wrote that, Barney Fife?
Have you also heard that you are in talks with Denver to trade Arenas for Melo?
Ted,
To play fair the season hasn’t started and a lot can happen. Still they say the first step to correcting a problem is accepting it. Last year you guys accepted you were in rebuilding mode when Butler, Jamison and Haywood were traded. Your division has gotten a lot stronger. A lot of timing issues make next year not too hot for you. A lot of this has to do with the mess you’ve inherited. I mean who really expects their top player to be suspended for challenging another player to a duel after having two knee injuries?
On the plus side rookies are highly variable. We can say Wall seems overhyped but the truth is no one can really predict rookies at a high rate, so there is still a chance Wall turns into a good player. If your team stays the course and weathers next year you can come out much stronger. Arturo was just being kind enough to point out the situation you are likely in.
-Dre
I don’t know if I can trust a blogger who doesn’t have his own domain … 22 games, come on ..
Ted- you should have the answer to the question of the value or relevance of the stats in your bookshelf-Ma’s The House Advantage, which you recommended. The book does not analyze the Wizards’ 2010-11 success, but the author explains how it might be done and who might do it. It would be a benefit to your fans (and maybe your management team) to commission one of the stats wizards to analyze the Wizards, roster and predict the future. If nothing else, the assessment might help future drafts. Ma did work for several NBA clubs.
Go Caps!!
why glorify this guys blog site?